CATEGORY 6

It's all about . . . The U!!!

Category 6 ACC Preview: Miami (15-7) at FSU (16-7)

(Editor’s note: Special thanks to Michael Rogner of http://www.tomahawknation.com/ for working with us on this preview and advanced scouting on Florida State)

For years Miami and FSU have battled on the gridiron with a stake in the national championship on the line. On Saturday in Tallahassee, (1pm EST Raycom/ESPN3) the classic rivals will match up in hoops with a share of 1st place in the ACC potentially on the line. While we do not know if there is a basketball equivalent of “wide right”, we do know this is the most significant match-up in basketball these two have played in years, perhaps ever. The ‘Canes are riding high with a 5 game conference winning streak following Thursday’s home win over Virginia Tech. Prior to a surprising loss Wednesday at BC, FSU had won 7 in a row in the ACC including wins over UNC and Duke.  This is the first of two contest between the long time foes. FSU will be at the BUC on 2/26.

Kenny Kadji and Miami have been all smiles lately.

Projected Starting Lineups:

Miami

C Reggie Johnson                   6’10 300 JR

F Kenny Kadji                          6’11 260 SO

G Shane Larkin                       5’11 160 FR

G Malcolm Grant                     6’1 188  SR

G Durand Scott                       6’4 198  JR

FSU

C Bernard James                   6’10 240 SR

F Xavier Gibson                      6’11 248 SR

G Luke Loucks                       6’5 201 SR

G Deividas Dulkys                 6’5 196 SR

G Michael Snaer                    6’5 205 JR

 

ACC Standings

TEAM CONF OVERALL
Duke 7-2 20-4
North Carolina 7-2 20-4
Florida State 7-2 16-7
North Carolina State 7-3 18-7
Virginia 6-3 19-4
Miami (FL) 6-3 15-7
Maryland 4-5 14-9
Clemson 3-6 11-12
Boston College 3-7 8-16
Virginia Tech 2-7 13-11
Wake Forest 2-8 11-13
Georgia Tech 2-8 9-15

 

Keys to the Game: Penetrate and Dish. FSU’s defense under Leonard Hamilton is about as easy to compromise as a vault at Fort Knox. They are stingy to say the least. But if there is one way Miami can compromise the Seminoles vaunted D, it is through slashing moves to the hoop and well placed passes. Shane Larkin and Durand Scott will need to expose Luke Loucks and Deividas Dulkys as defenders if the ‘Canes hope to crack 60 in this contest.

Keep Kadji involved. Reggie Johnson has been a force the last 2 games, but we feel the ‘Cane that FSU will have the most trouble with is Kenny Kadji. Kadji remains deadly accurate from downtown, and this has only enhanced his ability to put the ball on the deck and slash. Kadji has gotten away from his back to the basket game some with Johnson’s return, but the more touches he gets the better Miami will fare in this game.

3 for 3 on threes!!!

Best Match-up: Reggie Johnson VS Bernard James. Johnson versus anyone now is intriguing since the big fella has really raised his game of late. James, who just turned 26 this week, is a skilled, athletic, and experienced big man. He averages 10.3 points 8.5 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks. While it is hard to give anyone the edge of Big Reg, James is the kind of player who could get him in foul trouble. If both can stay on the floor, this should be a classic heavyweight slug-fest.

Prediction: Coming off the loss at BC, we expect to see FSU play angry. Miami will have to withstand the Seminoles typical hard-nosed defense and make some contested shots. Reggie Johnson and Bernard James will bang under the basket and both will put points on the board.  The ‘Cane that the Seminoles will have the most trouble with will be Kenny Kadji. Miami will build a second half lead behind K2′s strong play, but Deividas Dulkys will shoot FSU back into it with a bucket or two. A late stand and some Durand Scott free throws seal it.  Miami wins 62-58.

FSU players, after shocking Duke.

 

Here is our full Q&A with Michael Rogner of http://www.tomahawknation.com/

Please check out the site for our answers to his questions.

C6: Miami’s most successful run (3 straight NCAA Tournament appearances 1998-2000) as a program occurred with current FSU Coach Leonard Hamilton at the helm. Clearly he is having success with FSU. What do you feel makes him such a great coach? Is he doing his best job ever this year? How was he able to turn it around after the Seminoles early season out of conference losses and the blow out at Clemson?

TN: Building top quality programs at places like Miami and FSU is a remarkable feat, and one that is not well understood by the FSU fanbase. In terms of financial commitment to the program, FSU is essentially the basketball version of Wake Forest football. So Ham has to be creative. He brings in recruits from all over the place – a high school dropout he saw playing in a military game, a little known Alaskan point guard who was ready to enroll at Cal, etc… And he built his system around undervalued talents – ie offensively challenged players with next level size and athleticism, and then gets them to play defense. In terms of his best job ever, I actually think that was the 2007 season before it was derailed by the Toney Douglas injury. In the pre-season I pegged this team with an offense between 90 and 100 (currently 99th) and a defense around 10th (currently 9th). So they’re pretty much where I expected. The turnaround actually came in the Princeton game (when FSU scored 10 in the first half). Ham switched to a 3-guard lineup and since then FSU’s offense has gone from 184th to 99th, while the defense has remained stout.

C6: Bernard James has been a steady force down low. How do you see James matching up with Miami big man Reggie Johnson? Who has the advantage overall among post players James/Xavier Gibson VS Johnson/Kenny Kadji?

 

TN: This is where Miami has a huge advantage. James and/or Gibson can’t guard Johnson one-on-one (who can, that’s not in the NBA?), and Kadji’s versatility will give anyone problems. FSU will mix and match who’s on Johnson, and front the post with backside help. FSU’s bigs have the advantage when they’re on offense, but if Miami can handle them with minimal help then they should win this game.

C6: Michael Snaer has been very effective all season? What do you attribute his success to? What other players on FSU have been key to their winning streak? Which players on Miami do you feel might give FSU trouble on Saturday?

TN: From a mechanics standpoint, Snaer rebuilt his shot as a freshman and that work is beginning to pay off. From a mental standpoint, he’s still learning how to be the floor leader. When he’s focused and aggressive, he’s very hard to stop. But he tried to hard to involve his teammates, and then he gets frustrated and starts jacking bad 3s. The other play who has keyed their newfound offense is Ian Miller. His return allowed FSU to move to the 3-guard lineup, and he’s the only player who can consistently break down a defense off the dribble. Unfortunately, his defense is as bad as Michael Snaer’s is good, and Snaer is the best perimeter defender in the conference. Who will give Miami trouble? FSU is the best 3-point shooting team in the conference, and whoever gets hot will be that player. I’ll go with Dulkys.

C6: Do you think the FSU-Miami rivalry in basketball will ever come close to football? How do FSU fans feel about the basketball team? Do they have a big home court advantage at the Tucker Center?

TN: No. FSU is a football school, followed by spring football, signing day, fall practice and baseball. FSU fans only get behind the team when they’re winning and a month ago the student newspaper was calling for coach Hamilton’s head. There’s not a good understanding of what good basketball is, like you find at more established schools. However, when they are winning, the Donald L Tucker center can be loud and FSU always plays better at home.

C6: Finally, how do you see Saturday’s game playing out? What is your prediction and who will have big games?

TN: Honestly, I’m going back and forth on this one. Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji are just playing so good right now. And Shane Larkin is the kind of player that causes fits for FSU’s big guards. The last four teams to beat FSU all heavily involve sub-6′ PGs who can get into the lane and cause rotation problems for the defense. I hate to say it, but I think FSU is hoping to get a split with Miami. Since this one is in Tallahassee, I’ll take the Noles 67-64.

 

  • strauzer says:

    really need solid play from Scott IMO to win, if he is playing well they will have to respect that and not double Reggie. have to work the ball inside efficiently, play balanced and smart

    February 10, 2012 at 10:21 am

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