After the disappointment of Selection Sunday and the terrible Tuesday of watching Iona blow a 25pt 2nd-half lead, we called on our Category 6 computer programmers to run a simulation. At first they resisted, despondent over What if Miami had been put in the play-in game instead of Iona? We also reverse simulated Durand Scott’s ridiculous suspension.
In the simulated play-in game, Miami took on BYU and came away with a virtually hard-fought 64-60 victory over the Cougars. The ‘Canes balanced attack was spearheaded by Trey McKinney Jones (12pts, 5reb, 1ast, 1stl).
After being cleared by the BSNCAA, Durand Scott (10pts, 7reb, 5ast, 1stl) struggled from the field but came up big on the glass and finding teammates for open looks. Scott drilled some big FT’s down the stretch to maintain Miami’s slim lead.
Kenny Kadji (11pts, 6reb, 1stl, 1blk) drilled his lone attempt from 3 and pinned Noah Hartsock against the glass on a big defensive possession. Malcolm Grant (9pts, 2reb, 2ast, 1stl) hit both his 3′s and DeQuan Jones (9pts, 5reb, 1) had a steal that led to a breakaway dunk.
Shane Larkin (5pts, 5reb, 4ast, 6stl) created chaos for BYU’s ball-handlers. Larkin picked Matt Carlino 3 times and finished one of those steals off with a spectacular lob to Rion Brown (6pts, 2reb, 1ast). Reggie Johnson (2pts, 6reb, 3ast) was double and triple-teamed when the ‘Canes tried to get it to him in the post. The attention paid to Reggie seemed to open up the deep ball for the ‘Canes. As a team Miami shot a sterling 9-17 (52.9%) from beyond the arc.
Rion Brown lead the way with 18 points as Miami overcame a slow start to dispose of Valparaiso 66-50 in the first round of the NIT. Ryan Broekhoff lead the way for Valpo with 18 points but on just 6-15 shooting. Reggie Johnson contributed 9 points 15 rebounds and 4 assists for the ‘Canes, and Shane Larkin continued his strong play with 12 points as well as an outstanding defensive game. Miami looked lethargic at times, building just a 24-23 first half lead. But the second half was all UM, as the ‘Canes used outstanding defense and hot shooting to cruise to the victory.
Rion Brown gave Valpo fits Wednesday night.
Player of the Game: Brown. When Rion Brown is at his best, the only way to describe him is “smooth.” Brown busted the Crusaders zone to the tune of 4-7 from downtown. At one point Brown displayed his superior athleticism by saving an offensive rebound to Trey McKinney Jones, who immediately kicked it right back to Brown. Before RB released the ball TMJ back pedaled down court arms raised with out a shadow of doubt the ball was going in. It was the kind of night for Rion Brown.
The Bad News: Durand Scott was re-instated by the NCAA, but must first serve a 6 game suspension. Counting tonight’s game he has served two, so the suspension effectively ends the season of arguably UM’s best player. The silver lining is that Larkin and Brown in particular have raised their games. But with out the NYC native Scott, Miami’s chances to reach the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden are significantly reduced.
What’s Next: Miami will face Minnesota (20-14) at the BUC, TBA. The Golden Gophers upset LaSalle 70-61 in their first round NIT match-up.
Amidst the disappointment of not being selected to the field of 68 and the continued uncertainty in the status of Durand Scott, Miami’s selection to the NIT feels almost anti-climatic. Adding to the angst is the fact the NIT decided the ‘Canes were only worthy of a #2 seed in the tourney, remarkable considering most pundits had UM as one of their last 4 out for the NCAA’s. But with the conspicuous timing of Scott’s suspension as well as the overwhelming feeling that Miami got screwed by the refs against FSU, unwelcome surprises seem to be a trend for UM. That being said ‘Cane fans can take solace in the face that the season continues and the careers of Malcolm Grant and DeQuan Jones have been extended.
The timing of Scott's ineligibility like his status remains a mystery.
For the full NIT bracket, click below(PDF reader required):
The Road Ahead: Until Scott’s status is settled, its difficult to forecast how well UM will do the NIT. The silver lining is Shane Larkin was spectacular in UM’s 2 ACC Tournament games (14.0 ppg 4.5 rpg, 4.0 apg, 2 stls). The team has faced incredible adversity all year long and responded. A trip to NYC and the NIT final four would be a poetic redemption for Brooklyn native Grant, and fellow NYC guard Scott, should he be cleared to play. Whatever the outcome of Miami’s next few games the team and the coaching staff deserve a ton of credit for remaining classy as they continue to be the most snake bitten team in the country.
After Valparaiso, they would face the winner of LaSalle – Minnesota, with a projected trip to Tennessee should they advance to the quarterfinals.
Wednesday game is at 7:30 PM EST at the BUC (ESPNU). Second round games are TBA.
Malcolm Grant & Miami return to action WED night in the NIT.
After receiving some bad news about Reggie Johnson’s eligibility and coming off a heart-crushing loss to Maryland, the ‘Canes were backed into a corner. The ‘Canes had lost 3 of their last 4 contests, including one to FSU. With an NCAA Tournament bid on the line, the ‘Canes played fast and furious in defeating the Seminoles 78-62.
The fans celebrated with the team after an emotional win over rival #15 FSU
When the season started, Miami struggled without Reggie Johnson. When Big Reg returned, the ‘Canes soared. DeQuan Jones’ return added more toughness and physicality. With Reggie suspended, Miami had to dig down deep. Put simply: the ‘Canes at the beginning of the year would have likely lost this game.
The team has improved tremendously over the course of the season. Sure, if the ‘Canes had lost to the ‘Noles at home tonight, the tone of this recap would have been completely different. The excuse would have likely been that Reggie wasn’t playing. And it would have been a good one, right? Reggie is a dynamic player who presents a match-up nightmare for nearly all his opponents – when he’s healthy. But the ‘Canes ability to win in this HUGE spot without him speaks volumes to how far this team has come.
The ‘Canes were down early as FSU got some easy baskets down low. With FSU leading 18-11, Hurricanes fans got nervous and the buzz in the BUC started to dissipate like electricity with no conductor. Then the ‘Canes went on a huge run and closed out the half with a slim 24-20 lead.
In the 2nd half, the ‘Canes got off to a fast start and shot the lights out of the BUC. As a team, Miami shot an eye-popping 60.9% from the field during the 2nd half. Miami appeared locked in on offense and consistently torched FSU’s vaunted defense. Down by 17, FSU’s Leonard Hamilton went to the Hack-A-’Cane strategy followed with a full court press. A few turnovers and some shaky FT shooting and FSU was able to cut the lead to 7 with 2:39 remaining. Shrugging off any bad memories of the previous game against Maryland, Miami refused to fold.
Durand Scott (17pts, 7reb, 2ast, 1stl) seemed to revel in the on-court celebration after the clock had expired. Kenny Kadji (15pts, 3reb, 5blk, 4stl) played a sterling game and was an absolute defensive beast. Trey McKinney Jones (11pts, 6reb) continued his great play with another strong effort. Shane Larkin (13pts, 2reb, 3ast) protected the ball and was money from the line at the end of the game. Rion Brown (9pts, 2reb, 1stl) produced a ton in only 13 minutes. DeQuan Jones (6pts, 4reb, 3ast, 1blk) was aggressive and his block in the 1st half seemed to spark the Miami run. Malcolm Grant (6pts, 1reb, 3ast) took care of the ball and hit a couple of big 3′s.
Player of the Game: This was a team effort with 4 players in double-digits in scoring and another with 9. If I have to give it to someone, it’s Durand Scott. Scott is the heart of this team. As he beats, so do the ‘Canes.
Defensive Player of the Game: Kenny Kadji. The team played great defense as a whole, but Kadji was spectacular with 5 blocks and 4 steals.
The Good: Beating FSU in a must-win game and really boosts Miami’s chances for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. At 8-6 in the ACC, Miami has a legitimate chance to cement a bid by winning out. If not, the ACC Tournament is another shot to add a few more notches. We’ll be covering the ACC Tournament from Atlanta and look for our ACC Tournament Survival Guide coming soon. If you’re going, send an email to category6um@gmail.com.
The Bad: FSU fans were tailgating under the Metrorail. We’ve been trying to find out if this is legal. I asked a police officer on duty and he said “As long as they’re not burning any trees down, I don’t think it’s a problem.” We need to have a tailgate before the finale against Boston College. It’s a moral imperative.
The Ugly: Lots of maroon and gold in the crowd, but you didn’t hear that much of them as the game wore on. Last season after FSU beat Miami, they did that irritating tomahawk chant as they streamed merrily out of the BUC.
The ‘Canes suffered a heart-breaking loss to the Maryland Terrapins falling 75 – 70 in an effort that left ‘Canes fans scratching their heads. Miami seemed to grab the momentum in the final minutes and outplayed the Terps for most of the game, but sloppy play at the end gave Maryland enough room to squirm out of their shells and secure the victory.
Coach Chris Caputo told 'Canes fans that Reggie Johnson (42) didn't play much because his knee was bothering him.
It was a game that the ‘Canes seemed on the verge of putting away at several points. There were times where just one more rebound or made shot could have made Maryland quit. But the Terrapins hung tough. Terrell Stoglin (20pts, 2reb, 3ast) needed a ton of shots, but was money on the stripe at the end of the game.
Where Maryland was clutch, Miami struggled . . . badly. As one poster on canestime.com framed it “We worked hard for that loss”. The ‘Canes have been adept at putting away lesser-talented teams this season but that trend faltered and buckled with a tough loss. The ‘Canes needed 2OT’s to beat Maryland at home, but that was without Kenny Kadji (16pts, 8reb, 1blk) who played a strong game. Reggie Johnson (3pts, 4reb, 1ast) only played 15 minutes and didn’t appear to hit the floor the entire 2nd half. It was in the 2nd frame that the ‘Canes were dominated on the boards.
Trey McKinney Jones (13pts, 2reb) was on fire from the field but didn’t get many opportunities in the 2nd half. TMJ was 4-5 from the field and nailed 3 of his 4 bombs from beyond the arc. Durand Scott (14pts, 5reb, 1ast) fouled out in the waning moments. James Padgett (16pts, 6reb) had an impressive game for Maryland, connecting on a variety of post-moves.
Make no mistake – this was a game the ‘Canes let slip away. Out of 9 turnovers – a pretty good line – 3 of them were in the final minutes and proved to be the difference in the game.
Despite the loss, Miami’s chances at the NCAA Tournament aren’t dashed. The ‘Canes have 3 games left before the ACC Tournament begins on March 8th in Atlanta, Georgia. With the loss against Maryland, the game against FSU becomes a must-win (barring a deep ACC Tourney run) game.
Next Game: Miami takes on FSU at the BUC on Sunday. Let’s rally around the team and pack the BUC! There’s a lot of basketball left to play.
Four regular season games to go and Miami (16-9 overall 7-5 ACC) remains a bubble team, albeit one with a strong resume.
Coach L tells Dequan Jones to keep his bags packed for March Madness
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the ‘Canes in as a #13 seed and one of the last four in, in his latest projection. But how will all that change, based on the ‘Canes last 4 games?!?! No need to wait for ESPN, Category 6 worked all night with our science and math departments to give you this breakdown:
Joe Lunardi has nothing on the Category 6 computer.
Scenario 1: Miami runs the table and finishes 11-5 in the ACC. Our computers returned a result on this scenario faster than a Devin Hester forty. 99.999% chance they get in with a seed anywhere from 7-9. Even a quick exit in the ACC tournament wouldn’t derail the ‘Canes. Only the miniscule chance that Nevin Shapiro is released from prison, and takes over the reigns as AD could leave UM out under this scenario.
Scenario 2: Miami finishes 10-6 in the ACC including a win over FSU. 98.7% chance of getting in, with only the highly unlikely circumstance they upset the committee and replace Jim Larranaga with Seth Greenberg as coach, causing their demise (sorry Virginia Tech). Likely a 9-10 seed, depending on if they do work in the ACC Tourney.
Scenario 3: Miami finishes 10-6 but loses to FSU. 93.3% chance of getting in. In this scenario UM only gets left behind if NC State defeats UNC Tuesday and beats everyone else on their schedule minus the Hurricanes. 10 seed or lower.
Scenario 4: Miami finishes 9-7 and beats FSU. 74.4% chance of getting in. Again the odds go up if NC State fails to beat UNC, as the Wolfpack and Miami appear to be in direct competition for a bid. A win over FSU gives the ‘Canes a huge edge as it would provide a 2nd win over an RPI top 50 (Duke of course being the first).11-13 seed.
Scenario 5: Miami finishes 9-7 and loses to FSU. 44.3% Here is where things get murky. If the ‘Canes split their final four and can not defeat the Seminoles, they are at the committee’s mercy. They can still improve their chances with a strong showing in the ACC Tourney, but this scenario defines “bubble”. 13 seed if they get in.
Scenario 6: Miami finishes 8-8 in the ACC, 21.2 %. Barring a big time run in Atlanta (ACC tournament championship appearance), the ‘Canes are headed to the NIT. Forget seeding, just lucky to be considered at this point.
Durand, we are just as confused as you when it comes to the science of selecting the field of 68.
Note: When we tried to enter data for the ‘Canes losing each of their 4 remaining games, the computer went into power save mode and displayed a screen saver of random fans throwing up a “U”. Our technical department is investigating this anomaly.
Keep an eye out for more from our science and math departments as we fill their glasses with Red Bull and keep them from the light of day.
Coming off two tough close losses to some of the ACC’s best, Miami’s MASH unit looked to get back in the win column. Despite taking a nasty tumble at the end of the UNC game and injuring his knee, Miami’s hard-nosed junior guard Durand Scott (18pts, 7reb, 3ast, 3stl) demonstrated Wolverine-like recuperative powers as he was all over the court and had plenty of lift when finishing at the rim.
Reggie Johnson (6pts, 8reb, 2ast, 1stl, 1blk) and Garrius Adams (6pts, 2reb, 1ast) – the other walking wounded for the ‘Canes – both contributed. Johnson struggled to get into rhythm the 1st half but was effective on the boards and served as a facilitator as the ‘Canes racked-up open trifecta attempts against the quickly-collapsing Wake zone. The action was the first for Adams since he suffered a torn meniscus several weeks ago. Having Adams back does a world for the ‘Canes versatility as Adams has a wide-range of skills – including hitting the 3.
Kenny Kadji (18pts, 5reb, 1blk) was a difficult match-up for Wake. The highly-skilled face-up PF demonstrated his entire arsenal. Rion Brown (11pts, 6reb, 3ast, 1stl) continued his high-flying antics and seems to improve every time out. Brown again had the play of the game in taking a perfectly thrown lob by Kadji that he caught way above the rim and put down over a Wake Forest defender. Category 6 spoke with Brown just yesterday. If you haven’t seen the clip, watch below. Warning – the audio was less than stellar so be sure to bring patient ears.
Rion Brown (15) goes way up to grab the Kadji lob and finishes with authority.
Malcolm Grant (9pts, 3reb, 6ast) hit some early 3′s and found his teammates with crisp passes. The trio of Trey McKinney Jones, Shane Larkin and DeQuan Jones didn’t score much, but their defense and patience offensively allowed the ‘Canes to find vulnerable chunks of the Wake zone to exploit.
The path the game took was very congruent to the preview Category 6′s own Jerry put together. Wake was able to hold it close by halftime but it was all UM in the 2nd frame. Wake Forest was hot in the 1st half, but their magic pixie dust ran out against a much bigger team in the Hurricanes. Miami smelled blood and nailed shot after shot, ultimately building an insurmountable lead.
Player of the Game: Durand Scott. It was a difficult choice between Scott and Kadji, but Scott was listed as “questionable” and seemed to shrug off an ugly looking knee injury in the waning moments of the UNC game to come back and decimate Wake Forest. Another thing . . . the term “warrior” in sports tends to get thrown around carelessly at times. Make no bones about it: Durand Scott is a “warrior”.
Durand Scott (1) helped the 'Canes trounce Wake Forest.
Offensive Player of the Game: We’ll go with Kadji here. Both Scott and Kadji finished with 18pts and were incredibly efficient.
Defensive Player of the Game: Team effort, but the nod goes to the omnipresent Scott.
Next Game: Wednesday, Feb. 21st @ Maryland. 8PM tip-off. In order for Miami to further their push for an NCAA bid, the ‘Canes will have to go into Maryland and defeat the Terps. These two teams met in Coral Gables earlier in the season and the ‘Canes won a thrilling 2OT contest. In that game the ‘Canes were without Kadji’s services. In this game K2 will be on the floor and will be a factor in the outcome.
